Can Uptober’s positive past help recover from a $400 billion loss, Trump’s new tariffs, and an upcoming $22 billion options expiration that is challenging weak support.
A $400 billion drop challenges the recent rise in cryptocurrency prices.
Cryptocurrency markets have been very unstable recently. Sure Please provide the text you’d like rewritten in simple words, and I’ll help you with that. From the 18th to the 26th, the total market value went down from about $4. 12 trillion to around $3. 72 trillion, losing nearly $400 billion in just a week.
The drop in prices wasn’t just in the spot markets. CoinGlass reported that around $850 million in derivatives were sold off in just 24 hours as of September. It seems you included “26. ” without any text to rewrite. Could you please provide the text you’d like me to simplify.
Long positions lost $712 million, while short positions lost $134 million. Ethereum accounted for about 32% of these losses, while Bitcoin’s value changed slightly.
about 25%, with the rest in other types of cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin reached a high of $124,128 in mid-August but is now trading at about $109,000, which is a drop of about 12% from its highest point. Ethereum has dropped a lot, going down about 22% from its high in August of around $4,945 to about $3,880 now.
These changes happened while the overall economy was sending different signals. In mid-September, investors started to feel unsure because the Federal Reserve kept a tough approach, inflation numbers were higher than expected, and the U. S economy showed signs of trouble. The dollar went up.
On On the 25th, Reuters said that the news from the U. S is positive The growth numbers increased the dollar’s value and made people rethink their predictions about upcoming interest rate cuts. Stocks also slowed down, making it harder for digital assets as money shifted into safer options.
Analysts said the drop was more about a lack of available money than a serious problem with the basic factors. Because people had borrowed money to invest, a change in feelings about the market quickly made them sell, which made the selling happen even faster.
When the drawdown happens is also affected by seasonal patterns. September is usually a weak month for cryptocurrencies, but this year it’s doing better than usual. It has gained just over 1% instead of the usual drop of about 3. 4%
Even with the current decline, Bitcoin is still expected to finish the third quarter with returns over 2%, making it the best Q3 since 2022. This brings up the question of whether October, often called Uptober, can bring its usual recovery.
People who have held their investments for a long time are selling to make some money, while the money coming into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is decreasing.
On-chain signals show that experienced investors are starting to take their profits. Glassnode thinks that long-term Bitcoin holders have recently sold about 3. 4 million BTC for profit. This level of selling often means that the market is slowing down.
The recent selling pressure comes after three separate times when a lot of money came in earlier this year, which raised the overall value of Bitcoin by $678 billion. This is almost twice as much as the increase from the last cycle.
The balance between supply and demand has changed. Money coming into ETFs, which used to regularly take in new investments, has decreased.
As a result, spot markets experienced a lot of selling, futures faced significant reductions in investments, and options prices shifted to reflect more risk of losing value.
People’s feelings about the market have become less positive. The Fear and Greed Index went down to 28 on September. 26 out of 52 in the last week.
Even with the pressure, growth in the structure has continued without slowing down. The Chainalysis 2025 Global Adoption Index shows that the Asia-Pacific region is at the top, with a 69% rise in the value of transactions made on the blockchain in the last year.
Ethereum developers are getting ready for the Fusaka upgrade, which is planned for December. Sure Please provide the text you would like me to simplify. Test networks for Holesky, Sepolia, and Hoodi are set for October.
The update is meant to make things work better, allow for unnecessary data to be removed, and possibly lower gas fees. This could help people feel more confident in Ethereum and its related systems.
Interest from organizations and businesses is another big topic in 2025. Over 200 companies have said they will start keeping cryptocurrency as part of their money reserves. Regulators, especially in the U. S, are keeping an eye on this trend because they are worried about disclosure and insider trading issues.
At the same time, companies that make stablecoins are working to grow bigger. Reports say that Tether is looking to raise between $15 billion and $20 billion. This would increase its value to around $500 billion, making it one of the biggest private financial companies in the world.
October optimism runs into the risks of Trump’s tariffs.
October has usually been a hopeful month for cryptocurrency markets. Past data shows that Bitcoin usually increases by about 21% in October, making it one of the best months for gains, after November. But in 2025, that hope has more challenges than normal.
On On the 25th, President Trump said there will be new tariffs starting in October. Sure Please provide the text you would like me to simplify. The measures include 100% taxes on medicines, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on soft furniture, and 25% on large trucks.
Pharmaceutical companies in the U. S can get special permissions or exceptions. factory buildings At the same time, Trump suggested lowering interest rates to around 2%. Even though the policy is being called a national security plan, the markets see it as a rise in trade conflicts.
At the beginning, there were noticeable reactions in Asia and Europe. Stocks in the pharmaceutical industry dropped because people were worried about 100% import taxes. The worry is that increasing trade restrictions might make investors less willing to take risks and could lead them to pull money out of high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
A recent example shows how markets could respond. In April Trump announced the “Liberation Day” tariffs, which are new taxes on imports meant to balance trade.
The result was a big fall in global stock prices, an increase in market ups and downs, and pressure on industries related to manufacturing and technology. Crypto also lost its strength during that time as investors became more cautious.
Experts warn that the same situation could happen again if the new tariffs increase or if important trading partners take defensive actions.
Another short-term factor is the end of quarterly options. Reports from different sources, including data from Deribit, show that $22 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire on September.
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These expiries can increase price swings because big amounts of money make dealers and traders change their protective strategies when prices hit important levels. Ending of the quarter can have a big impact, and since support levels are already weak, changes in buying and selling could make prices move up or down faster.
Experts have different opinions, but the economy is still running too hot, which keeps the risks high.
Experts have different opinions about what will happen to Bitcoin next. Market analyst Ansem described three possible situations for the market. He thinks there is a 60% chance that the market will slowly improve starting in 2026. There is a 20% chance that the market will drop further to between $80,000 and $90,000, and a 15% chance that there will be a big increase in prices sooner.
He also mentioned that a bad economic situation is a possible risk, estimating there’s only a 5% chance that prices could drop to $50,000.
At the same time, analyst Ted Pillows mentioned that Bitcoin is staying slightly above a key price level where it usually has support. If that base stays strong, he thinks there’s a chance for prices to go up to $112,000. If there is a drop, the price might test the $101,000 level again before it tries to go back up.
Looking at past events is also influencing feelings. James Van Straten noted that in September 2024, Bitcoin fell by 11%, stayed at the same level for two weeks, and then went up again by mid-October.
He mentioned that the recovery depends on the market staying at its September low, which traders are keeping a close eye on again.
The main point is that the market is still too hot after a year of a lot of money coming in, which makes it sensitive to changes in the economy or government policies. Be careful with the situation right now and don’t invest more money than you can afford to lose.
